For Immediate Release
Thursday, June 19, 2026
Contact:
Sarah Bascom, sarah@bascomllc.com
Lyndsey Brzozowski, lyndsey@bascom.group
AIF-endorsed candidate for US Senate, Senator Ashley Moody, holds a healthy 7-point lead in the general election match-up for US Senate against Democratic challenger Alex Vindman.
Intensity:
Moody’s support is harder than Vindman’s. Although Vindman captures 40% support, only 29% of voters indicate they are “definitely” voting for Vindman compared to 35% who indicate they are “definitely” voting for Moody.
Support by Media Market:
Moody leads Vindman in a majority of media markets across the state; including: +41 in Ft. Myers, +22 in Jacksonville, +19 in the Panhandle, +5 in Tampa, and +5 in Orlando. Vindman leads Moody by 8-points in Miami; however, the Miami media market is currently home to the most undecided voters with 21% of voters undecided.
Support by Race:
Moody leads Vindman by 15-points amongst white voters (52-37%) and maintains a healthy 10-point lead with Hispanics (48-38%), well outside the poll margin of error.
Support by Gender:
As Florida Democrats continue to hemorrhage voter registration amongst men, Moody holds a 9-point lead among men (49-40%) and a 5-point lead among women (45-40%). Currently, women indicate higher levels of undecided voters (16%) compared to men (11%).
“Senator Ashley Moody holds a healthy lead well outside the margin of error in her re-election campaign for US Senate,” said Jeremy Sheftel, AIF Vice President of Political Operations. “With a 1.5 million statewide voter registration advantage over Democrats and Republicans continuing to net more registrations month-over-month, voters are clearly rewarding Moody’s leadership and record of results for working Florida families.”
The AIF Center for Political Strategy has been closely monitoring Florida electoral trends through regular statewide polling, strategic legislative district polling, and focus groups throughout the state. For additional information on AIF’s Center for Political Strategy, visit aif.com/political.
METHODOLOGY: The AIF Center for Political Strategy poll consisted of 800 likely 2026 general election voters in Florida with a subset of 386 likely Republican voters, and was conducted from June 3-7th, 2026. Interviews were collected via landlines, cell phones, and SMS/text messaging to web and were balanced to reflect a likely 2026 general election turnout across age, party, gender, race, media market, education, income, and 2024 Presidential recall vote. The margin of error is +/- 3.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding.
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