by marian p. johnson

The End Of The Road

In November of 1992, Florida voters inaugurated a new era in Florida politics when they approved an amendment to the stateþs constitution limiting legislators and Cabinet officials to eight consecutive years of service, starting with all elections held after 1992.

   This means that even if every single lawmaker is re-elected next year, in 2000, term limits will automatically eliminate from office 35 percent of the current Senate membership and 63 percent of the current membership of the Florida House of Representatives.

    Now, let's take it a step further to the year 2002. Again, we'll assume that there are no changes in the current membership of the Legislature beyond those pushed out by term limits in the year 2000. When the Legislature convenes in March 2003, the current Senate will automatically have lost 34 senators, or 85 percent of its membership, while 103 representatives, or 86 percent of the House membership, will change.

    In 1998, Florida voters will cast their choices for governor, all six Cabinet officials, the entire House of Representatives, half of the Senate, one U.S. Senate seat, and every Florida member of the U.S. House. Many state senators and representatives are trying to decide whether running for any one of those offices will be the way to keep their political careers alive past the year 2000.

    Since Cabinet races were not on the ballot in 1992, the clock started running for these offices in 1994. Thus, if all six members of the Cabinet are reelected in 1998, every single one will be looking for a new job in 2002. That means that in 2002, there could be 143 politicians competing for a limited number of jobs.

    Who will do what is mostly speculation right now. So far, a few state lawmakers have announced their candidacy for statewide office and rumors surround the plans of many more. If these legislators make a run at another office in 1998, they will have to resign from the seat they hold now. Most of them will lose their seats in 2000, anyway, because of term limits.

    There are a lot of machinations going on right now as politicians who want to remain politicians start looking for a limited number of job openings. Other politicians are seeking to hold onto their positions as long as they can, hoping to thwart those who will be wandering in the political desert.

    Term limits guarantee political change. Is that good? Maybe, but then again maybe not. What happens if a particular special interest group elects enough of their own to control either chamber of the Legislature? Thanks to term limits, the opportunity for an aggressive organization to plan and institute a "take-over" exists. Can you imagine having 30 Naders Raiders in the House of Representatives or three rabid environmentalists on the Cabinet?

    Term limits present a challenge to Florida's business community. It's a challenge that must be answered by recruiting qualified, pro-free-enterprise people to run for office. We cannot allow any other special interest groups to do a better job answering this call.

Marian Johnson is senior vice president - political operations with Associated Industries of Florida and manages the Florida Business United research organization, AIF's political arm. Her extensive political experience spans more than 30 years, having served on numerous presidential campaigns at the national level, as well as many state Senate and state House campaigns. Her expertise ranges from candidate recruitment to campaign management.