Getting to Know You ... All Over Again By Bernadette Budde
Two weeks after the election, we still don't know the names, faces or parties of all 100 Senators who will be seated in January. Two races are unresolved (Georgia and Minnesota), and a third race (Alaska) appears to favor the Democratic challenger, but nothing is official. There will be at least two appointments due to the resignation of Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Joe Biden (D-Del) as a result of the presidential election. And Washington gossip circles are sure that by this time next week, at least one more Senate seat will be vacated.
The Senate has often been considered the unchanging body of Congress because longevity is a trait of high-profile members who serve for decades, remaining active well into their senior years. But the reality is quite different.
In the last three election cycles (2004, 2006, 2008) the Senate has undergone major shifts. Those who assemble working coalitions around issues should remind their cohorts about the challenging environment the Senate has become, not just because of fewer Republicans, but because of fewer long-term predictable members.
Gone are the days of capitalizing on eons of good relationships with well-placed senior legislators, usually coming from the same old places motivated by the same old arguments. They in turn could mentor a handful of new faces every cycle and coax them into supporting a bill as they were brought slowly into the club.
The staid Senate may always have been a myth because change has been the natural course for at least the last four years. A sign of things to come, and a warning of the task ahead for business to rethink its alliances and its approach to finding a magic number of supporters to move or stop our agenda.
Consider the following:
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The 111th Senate, pending resignations to serve in the Cabinet and the outcome of the undeclared elections, will have at least 31 members serving in their first term. That means any legislative debate taking place before January 2005 didn't happen on their watch. You shouldn't be stuck fighting the same old battles in the same old ways.
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Twenty-eight states have first-term senators, including the industrial/manufacturing heavyweights such as Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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States with newcomer residents are willing to put new faces in the Senate. Both senators in Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia are serving in their first term. If you are a new employer and created this growth in new jobs which attracted new residents, you were part of this evolution. All three states went for Obama in 2008, but the groundwork for his message was paved by Senate candidates.
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At least 19 Democrats are in their first term, meaning the majority was built and sustained by individuals who were chosen by change-oriented, solution-driven voters less concerned about party label than they were about the trust they placed in something different. Let's not assume the Senate elders control how these individuals think about current issues.
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Only a dozen Republicans are in their first term, with more than half of them from the class of 2004. Since that election, only five Republicans have joined the Senate, indicating a diminished voice for those elected under recent political conditions.
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Since adding only one new member in 2004, Democratic veterans have been joined by another 18 (or more as events unfold) colleagues in the last two elections. Only six of them have come from the House, meaning state/local officials produced two-thirds of the new blood. So much for the presumed insularity of Washington Democratic circles. Republicans, however, were more likely to move from the House to the Senate, with seven of the 12 initially serving in the House.
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The class of 2004 will be on the ballot in 2010, and eight of this group are in their first term. Only one Democrat, Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.), was in that class which includes seven Republicans, two of whom are from states switching from Republican to Democrat in the presidential race (Florida and North Carolina).
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The Senate committee most affected by the role of junior members is Energy and Natural Resources. With the retirement of the top two Republicans and the defeat of another in 2008, there are eight panelists returning, five of whom are first-termers. All 12 Democrats return to this committee, four of whom are first-termers. Whatever arguments you used prior to 2005 about domestic supply or foreign independence, likely to sound dated to them.
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Senate Finance has undergone turnover as well. Two Republican incumbents lost this cycle while all Democrats are expected to return. Salazar serves on both Energy and Finance.
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Although returning to the Senate, Appropriations chair Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va) will step aside from his leadership post. Three Republicans didn't run again, and it appears that Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), a former chair, has lost his re-election bid, based on the latest tallies.
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