The Electoral College was a landslide and a strong reversal of the last two presidential elections. The 365 total was 95 more than Obama needed, and 113 more than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in 2004. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) had 173 electors -- 97 short of the required 270, and 113 less than President Bush won in 2004.
Final official vote totals are yet to be tabulated, but it appears Obama will receive 53 percent, McCain 46 percent, a spread close to what the poll averages were in the final week of the campaign. It is clear the reputable polling firms accounted for a change in demographics, specifically an increase in independents and a decrease in Republican identifiers, with an adequate sample of young, first time voters. This spread also means we can stop talking about the Bradley Effect.
Exit polls leave a lot to be desired, but it looks as if at least 11 percent of the sample were first-time voters. They gave Obama a 39 percent advantage, bigger than his margin among voters under 30. The under-30 cohort represented 18 percent of the exit poll, and two-thirds of them voted for Obama. These are the kids, or grandkids, of the Reagan Democrats and the soccer moms of two decades ago.
One of the things we didn't think could happen did: Nebraska split its electoral votes along district lines, and Obama took NE 2, thus adding one to his count. He won 365 Electoral College votes. That's easy to remember -one for each day of the year.
New map means labor and GOP have something in common – scrapping the old playbook
Exactly what claim does organized labor think they have on the incoming administration? Given the margin of victory, compiled by a multi-regional map, Obama tallied 271 Electoral College votes and would have won without the following states where labor is likely to claim they delivered: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Nevada. There were 300 electors in the Obama column without Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
This is the last presidential election where Ohio and Pennsylvania have 41 Electoral College votes because the 2010 census will result in reallocation of congressional districts, and in turn the presidential role. Even this cycle, these two industrial states were not as important as Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and New Mexico. Look for a scattered strategy leading to candidates chasing all over the country in future election cycles.
Republican return to the White House might have to be built on a very different map. Is it possible to find a path to win California? It now has 55 electors. That's equal to the 2008 number from Florida, North Carolina and Virginia - all of which went for Obama and not McCain. The normal tradeoff for California didn't work so well this time either. In order to balance a loss of California, Republicans had to win the following: Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio... oops, that didn't go so well this time. Missouri did stay in the Republican column by a few thousand votes.
The closest of the so-called blue states were Iowa, where McCain lost by 9 percent and New Hampshire, where McCain lost by 10 percent.
Last summer we said it was the House Democrats built. Well they keep building, and in the Senate too.
Since the morning after, Republicans lost an additional Senate seat when all ballots were counted in Oregon. There are still unresolved elections in Alaska where over 80,000 votes are yet to be counted, and Sen. Ted Stevens (R) is ahead by a little over 3,000 votes; Georgia where state law requires a runoff and Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) faces former state legislator Jim Martin (D) on Dec. 2; and Minnesota where an official recount is underway, with Sen. Norm Coleman (R) no more than 200 votes ahead of comedian Al Franken (D) in a three-way contest.
In the last two election cycles, Republicans have lost a total of at least 12 Senate seats, while picking up nothing from Democrats. There are now two Democratic senators in Colorado and Virginia, once considered safe Republican territory.
A few House races are also unofficial, but BIPAC is calling all but three of them: Republican open seats in CA 4, OH 15, and the runoff on Dec. 6 in LA 4. Democrats will have at least 257 seats, for a gain of at least 21 seats.
In the last two election cycles, Republicans have lost a total of at least 58 House seats while returning four from 2006/2007 to their column. One indication of the geography problem for Republicans, no seat in New England is held by the party, only three in New York, and at best, Republicans will tie in the Ohio delegation. Republicans also lost three seats in Virginia, but only one in New Jersey.
BIPAC 2008 Election Summary
(as of Monday, Nov. 10, 2008)
Presidential Race
President-elect Barack Obama (D) won 365 Electoral College votes, an increase of 113 over John Kerry. Sen. John McCain had 173 - 97 votes short of victory.
Democrats won all the states carried by Gore and Kerry.
Democrats also won the following states carried by President Bush in 2000 and 2004: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia. Missouri went for McCain, although by a narrow margin.
Senate Races
Democrats will control at least 57 seats (including 2 Independents), for a gain of 6 seats. Republicans will control no more than 43 seats.
The freshman class will have at least 8 members.
Republicans retained open seats in Idaho and Nebraska. Republicans lost open seats in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.
Republican incumbents lost in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon.
No Democratic seat was lost.
Seats not yet called held by Republicans: Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia.
House Races
Democrats will have at least 257 seats in the House, for a gain of at least 21. Republicans will not have more than 178.
The freshman class will have at least 53 members, with 31 Democrats and 19 Republicans and at least three to be determined.
